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Tale of the Tape: Self vs. Eckes Slug it Out for ARCA Menards Series Championship

www.arcaracing.com September 26, 2019

After 18 races, the chase for the 2019 ARCA Menards Series championship comes down to two races, a five-point separation between the top two drivers, and 300 scheduled laps of competition to decide it.

Just like two boxers ready to climb in the ring and slug it out for the title belt, we measured up contenders Michael Self (No. 25 Sinclair Lubricants Toyota) and Christian Eckes (No. 15 JBL Audio Toyota) prior to the the final two races.

Here is the tale of the tape:

There are two races remaining, one on a paved short track, Lucas Oil Raceway, and one on an intermediate superspeedway, Kansas Speedway.

Self has four wins this season, two on paved short tracks, one on a dirt mile, and one on an intermediate superspeedway. In ten short track starts he has eight top-five finishes, with a 4.9 average finish. He’s led at least one lap in five short track races, led the most laps in two more, for 35 bonus points, and earned one General Tire Pole Award for another five bonus points giving him a total of 40 short track bonus points. His average start on short tracks is 4.1. Self scores an average of 210.5 points per short track race.

Eckes has three wins this season, one on a paved short track, one on a dirt mile, and one on an intermediate superspeedway. In eight starts on short tracks – he missed the first race at Salem in April due to illness – he has seven top-five finishes with a 3.5 average finish. He has led at least one lap in four short track races for 20 bonus points, led the most laps in two races for ten more bonus points, and earned one General Tire Pole Award for another five, giving him a total of 35 bonus points on the short tracks. His average start on short tracks is 3.6. In nine short track races in 2019, Eckes has earned an average of 218.8 points per race.

The two have gone head-to-head at Lucas Oil Raceway one previous time, in 2018, when Eckes won from the pole and Self started and finished eleventh.

Based on the numbers on the short tracks this season, and last year’s race win at Lucas Oil Raceway, Eckes gets a slight advantage over Self in round one of the two-race shootout.

Self has one win on intermediate superspeedways this season, that coming in June at Michigan. He dominated the race at Charlotte, leading 91 laps, before fading to fifth at the finish and he earned top-five results at Chicagoland and the July race at Pocono. In five intermediate superspeedway races, Self has an average finish of 4.8, and has earned two General Tire Pole Awards and led the most laps in two of those races, Charlotte and Michigan, and led laps at Chicagoland giving him 35 intermediate superspeedway bonus points. Self has earned an average of 206 points per race on intermediate superspeedway tracks this season, but that total would be 216 points if not for a 50-point penalty following his win at Michigan.

Eckes has been just as strong in the five intermediate superspeedway races. He won at Pocono in July, and finished third at Michigan, along with seventh-place runs at Charlotte, the first race at Pocono, and Chicagoland. Eckes only has five bonus points, for leading laps in his Pocono win. His average finish is nearly identical to Self’s, 5.0. Eckes has earned an average of 209 points per race per intermediate superspeedway race in 2019, above Self’s actual average but not above the pre-penalty average.

While Eckes has a previous win at Lucas Oil Raceway, Self is a former winner at Kansas. He won in 2017 driving for MDM Motorsports. Eckes, however, does have some winning experience in his back pocket despite not having raced at Kansas previously. His crew chief Kevin Reed won at Kansas in 2015 with driver Mason Mitchell.

Based on the above, Self is projected to earn 426 points over the final two races. The ARCA Menards Series championship point system is based on increments of five points, so his projected total will be rounded to 425.

Meanwhile, Eckes is projected to earn a total of 428 points over the final two races. Again, rounding to the nearest five-point increment, he is projected to earn 430 points.

Self’s current point total is 4340. With his projected points from the final two races, his total would be 4765, plus the 250 point enter and compete bonus for the final five races of the season for a final projected total of 5015.

Eckes’s current point total is 4335. With his projected points from the final two races, his total would be 4765, plus the 250 point enter and compete bonus for the final five races of the season for a final projected total of 5015.

That’s right, 5015 to 5015.

So, should these projections hold true what’s the tie breaker?

First, it would be enter and compete, which both Self and Eckes have done every race. Then, it would go to wins, which as it stands, Self leads four to three, but could change. Should Eckes win one of the last two races of the season and Self doesn’t, it would fall back to top-five finishes. Eckes would need to win one race and finish in the top five in both races then need Self to finish outside the top five in both races so each ends the season with 13 top-five finishes. If that happens, Eckes would have 17 top-ten finishes to Self’s 15 top-ten finishes.

Regardless of what happens, it’s bound to be fun to watch.

The ARCA Menards Series returns to action on Saturday October 5 with the Herr’s Potato Chips 200 at Lucas Oil Raceway. Practice starts the day’s activities at 2 pm ET, with General Tire Pole Qualifying at 5 pm ET. The 200-lap main event, scheduled for live broadcast MAVTV, will go green shortly after 8 pm ET. ARCA for Me members can access live timing & scoring, live chat, and live track updates at ARCARacing.com. New users can register for free with a valid email address at ARCARacing.com/login. Discounted adult general admission tickets are available through October 4 at Indianapolis-area Menards locations for just $20. For more information, please visit TrackEnterprises.com.